December 1, 2015 No.1
https://www.facebook.com/mehtarahulc/posts/10153154709406922
Why / How IMO PVS = Preferential Voting System aka IRVS = Instant Runoff Voting System will reduce "casteism in output of voting" even if casteism in voters doesnt decrease !! How ? Caste neitral candidates will have much higher chances of winning. How? Please see details..
.
And at the same time, 2 round voting system DOES not reduce casteism !!
.
So IMO, PVS = IRVS will reduce casteism. How / Why?
.
Consider a typical assembly constituency in Bihar of say 200,000 voters. Even if caste groups form alliances, then also caste-nuetral candidates will win !! Say caste composition is as follows.
.
Muslims = 20% = 40000
Brahmin = 2% = 4000
Bania = 2% = 4000
Rajputs = 3% = 6000
Khurmi = 5% = 10000
Mahadalits = 10% = 20000
Dalits = 10% = 20000
Tribals = 5% =10000
Yadav = 15% = 30000
OtherOBCs = 28% = 56000
TOTAL = 100% = 200,000
.
In over 90% assembly constutuency, no single caste is above 30%. And in all Loksabha Constituency,l no caste is above 15% !! So caste having its own majority is rare rare execption at Assembly / Loksabha level. And even where some caste have say 20% or more, they have subcastes rivalry as well as animosity.
.
Now I will show that even if caste leaders combine or fight alone, caste neural candidates will most surely win in PVS = IRV
.
First,. lets see how IRB works. Please seehttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instant-runoff_voting for full description. Pls also google "Instant Runoff voting"
.
Now there are several CASTEIST candidates. We call them by their castes. And say there are 4-5 caste neutral candidates, who are known to be neutral to all castes. i.e. they do have their castes, but they dont practice casteism in office or while taking decision.
.
So we have
.
MuslimCandidate
BrahminCandidate
BaniaCandidate
RajputCandidate
KhurmiCandidate
MahadalitCandidate
DalitCandidate
TribalCandidate
YadavCandidate
OtherOBCCandidate
.
CasteNeutralCandidate1
CasteNeutralCandidate2
CasteNeutralCandidate3
.
Now say some 90% voters are casteist and some 10% are non-casteist.
.
Now how does IRV work? In IRV, each voter can give 1st preference, 2nd preference etc to candicates. The limit cabe equal to number of candidate, but that makes ballot paper too large, So we can put limit of 5 options.
.
Now say a voter votes as "C4 , C5, C2, C8" i.e. his first prerefence goes to C4, his second preference is C5 etc. Then in counting,
.
In first round, his ballot paper is put in pile of C4. If any candidate gets over 50% of polled votes, then counting ends. But if no candidate gets over 50% of all votes, then voting goes in second round.
.
In second round , the candidate who got LEAST votes is declared "defeated". And his votes are allocated to second preference. So if C4 is declared defeated, then voter's (C4 , C5, C2, C8) vote will be allocated to the pile of C5.
.
The process goes on till one candidate gets 50% of all votes OR only one candidate is left.
.
Now lets come back to casteist voters. Say each voter gave first preference to candidate of his caste. Now each voter knows that his caste's casteist candidate will NOT get 50% votes. Each voter is also afraid of possibility that casteist voter of OTHER caste may win. So to reduce the damage, his best choice is --- give second to fifth preference to CASTE NEUTRAL candidates.
.
And many casteist voters may also do other way --- they will give first preference to non-casteist candidates and give second or last preference to casteist candidate of their own caste.
.
IOW, highest votes that casteist candidates will get not exceed say 20%. But in each successive rounds, votes obtained by caste neutral candidates will increase, and finally it will be more than 20%.
.
Lets take above example. Say in each community, some 10% voters decide to give first preference to caste neutral candidates and rest give first preference to candidates of their own castes.
.
So we have following total in round 1
.
MuslimCandidate = 90% of his community share = 18%
BrahminCandidate = 90% of his caste share = 1.8%
BaniaCandidate = 1.8%
RajputCandidate = 2.7%
KhurmiCandidate = 4.5%
MahadalitCandidate = 9%
DalitCandidate = 9%
TribalCandidate = 4.5%
YadavCandidate = 13.5%
OtherOBCCandidate = 26.2%
.
CasteNeutralCandidate1 = 3.5%
CasteNeutralCandidate2 = 3.5%
CasteNeutralCandidate3 = 3%
.
So casteist candidates of small caste will lose in 1st , 2nd etc rounds. And the ballots in their pile will get transferred to the second preferences, The second preference will be caste-neutral candidates.
.
So in each round, votes of caste neutral candidates will grow. While in each round, votes of casteist candidates will NOT grow. So in a few rounds, caste neutral candidates will out-place casteist candidates.
.
===
.
Why even alliances of casteist leaders will fail in PVS?
.
Because too many casteist leaders try to form alliance, then that alliance will be weak. And if 2-3 casteist leaders align, then they will NOT cross even 35% votes, forget 50% votes.
.
==============
.
Finally, there can be degenarate cases, where EVERY voter gives first preference to his caste candidate, and so all non casteist candidate get 0% votes in first round and so they get expelled in first round itself. So even if they were to win in second preference, they cant win now.
.
Solution to such cases --- use Approval System !!! In approval system , a voter can approve as many candidates as he wants. And each approval has equal weight. And a better option is --- marking system. Here , each voter gives mark out of 100 to all candidates. But ballot papers are too too complicated to count and process. And so preferential voting system is "good enough".
https://www.facebook.com/mehtarahulc/posts/10153154709406922
Why / How IMO PVS = Preferential Voting System aka IRVS = Instant Runoff Voting System will reduce "casteism in output of voting" even if casteism in voters doesnt decrease !! How ? Caste neitral candidates will have much higher chances of winning. How? Please see details..
.
And at the same time, 2 round voting system DOES not reduce casteism !!
.
So IMO, PVS = IRVS will reduce casteism. How / Why?
.
Consider a typical assembly constituency in Bihar of say 200,000 voters. Even if caste groups form alliances, then also caste-nuetral candidates will win !! Say caste composition is as follows.
.
Muslims = 20% = 40000
Brahmin = 2% = 4000
Bania = 2% = 4000
Rajputs = 3% = 6000
Khurmi = 5% = 10000
Mahadalits = 10% = 20000
Dalits = 10% = 20000
Tribals = 5% =10000
Yadav = 15% = 30000
OtherOBCs = 28% = 56000
TOTAL = 100% = 200,000
.
In over 90% assembly constutuency, no single caste is above 30%. And in all Loksabha Constituency,l no caste is above 15% !! So caste having its own majority is rare rare execption at Assembly / Loksabha level. And even where some caste have say 20% or more, they have subcastes rivalry as well as animosity.
.
Now I will show that even if caste leaders combine or fight alone, caste neural candidates will most surely win in PVS = IRV
.
First,. lets see how IRB works. Please seehttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instant-runoff_voting for full description. Pls also google "Instant Runoff voting"
.
Now there are several CASTEIST candidates. We call them by their castes. And say there are 4-5 caste neutral candidates, who are known to be neutral to all castes. i.e. they do have their castes, but they dont practice casteism in office or while taking decision.
.
So we have
.
MuslimCandidate
BrahminCandidate
BaniaCandidate
RajputCandidate
KhurmiCandidate
MahadalitCandidate
DalitCandidate
TribalCandidate
YadavCandidate
OtherOBCCandidate
.
CasteNeutralCandidate1
CasteNeutralCandidate2
CasteNeutralCandidate3
.
Now say some 90% voters are casteist and some 10% are non-casteist.
.
Now how does IRV work? In IRV, each voter can give 1st preference, 2nd preference etc to candicates. The limit cabe equal to number of candidate, but that makes ballot paper too large, So we can put limit of 5 options.
.
Now say a voter votes as "C4 , C5, C2, C8" i.e. his first prerefence goes to C4, his second preference is C5 etc. Then in counting,
.
In first round, his ballot paper is put in pile of C4. If any candidate gets over 50% of polled votes, then counting ends. But if no candidate gets over 50% of all votes, then voting goes in second round.
.
In second round , the candidate who got LEAST votes is declared "defeated". And his votes are allocated to second preference. So if C4 is declared defeated, then voter's (C4 , C5, C2, C8) vote will be allocated to the pile of C5.
.
The process goes on till one candidate gets 50% of all votes OR only one candidate is left.
.
Now lets come back to casteist voters. Say each voter gave first preference to candidate of his caste. Now each voter knows that his caste's casteist candidate will NOT get 50% votes. Each voter is also afraid of possibility that casteist voter of OTHER caste may win. So to reduce the damage, his best choice is --- give second to fifth preference to CASTE NEUTRAL candidates.
.
And many casteist voters may also do other way --- they will give first preference to non-casteist candidates and give second or last preference to casteist candidate of their own caste.
.
IOW, highest votes that casteist candidates will get not exceed say 20%. But in each successive rounds, votes obtained by caste neutral candidates will increase, and finally it will be more than 20%.
.
Lets take above example. Say in each community, some 10% voters decide to give first preference to caste neutral candidates and rest give first preference to candidates of their own castes.
.
So we have following total in round 1
.
MuslimCandidate = 90% of his community share = 18%
BrahminCandidate = 90% of his caste share = 1.8%
BaniaCandidate = 1.8%
RajputCandidate = 2.7%
KhurmiCandidate = 4.5%
MahadalitCandidate = 9%
DalitCandidate = 9%
TribalCandidate = 4.5%
YadavCandidate = 13.5%
OtherOBCCandidate = 26.2%
.
CasteNeutralCandidate1 = 3.5%
CasteNeutralCandidate2 = 3.5%
CasteNeutralCandidate3 = 3%
.
So casteist candidates of small caste will lose in 1st , 2nd etc rounds. And the ballots in their pile will get transferred to the second preferences, The second preference will be caste-neutral candidates.
.
So in each round, votes of caste neutral candidates will grow. While in each round, votes of casteist candidates will NOT grow. So in a few rounds, caste neutral candidates will out-place casteist candidates.
.
===
.
Why even alliances of casteist leaders will fail in PVS?
.
Because too many casteist leaders try to form alliance, then that alliance will be weak. And if 2-3 casteist leaders align, then they will NOT cross even 35% votes, forget 50% votes.
.
==============
.
Finally, there can be degenarate cases, where EVERY voter gives first preference to his caste candidate, and so all non casteist candidate get 0% votes in first round and so they get expelled in first round itself. So even if they were to win in second preference, they cant win now.
.
Solution to such cases --- use Approval System !!! In approval system , a voter can approve as many candidates as he wants. And each approval has equal weight. And a better option is --- marking system. Here , each voter gives mark out of 100 to all candidates. But ballot papers are too too complicated to count and process. And so preferential voting system is "good enough".
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